3x3 Speedcubing: The Ultimate Limits Forecast
History · Methods · Hardware · Math · Biomech · Top Cubers · Training · Statistics — toward a single & average forecast.
23-Year WR Chronicle
The WCA was founded at the August 23-24, 2003 World Championship in Toronto. Dan Knights (USA) ran a 16.71 on opening day — finally breaking Minh Thai's 22.95 from 1982 that had stood for 21 years. Over the next 23 years the single fell to Zajder's 2.76, a 6.06× compression, ~7% per year compounded. The 1982 mark is excluded from the trend models — different era, 21-year data gap.
WR Single (actual)Ensemble median
The table below lists all 30 single WR drops. STM/TPS from community reconstructions.
| Date | Time | Holder | Comp | Method | Hardware | STM | TPS | Feature |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2003-08-23 | 16.53 | Jess Bonde (DK) | World Rubik's Games Championship 2003 | CFOP | – | – | – | first WCA-era single; Dan Knights briefly held 16.71 same day before Bonde broke it |
| 2004-01-24 | 14.76 | Shotaro Makisumi (JP) | Caltech Winter competition 2004 | – | – | – | – | |
| 2004-04-03 | 12.11 | Shotaro Makisumi (JP) | Caltech Spring competition 2004 | – | – | – | – | |
| 2005-10-16 | 11.75 | Jean Pons (FR) | Dutch Open 2005 | – | – | – | – | |
| 2006-01-14 | 11.13 | Leyan Lo (US) | Caltech Winter competition 2006 | – | – | – | – | |
| 2006-08-04 | 10.48 | Toby Mao (US) | US Nationals 2006 | – | – | – | – | |
| 2007-02-24 | 10.36 | Edouard Chambon (FR) | Belgian Open 2007 | – | – | – | – | |
| 2007-05-05 | 9.86 | Thibaut Jacquinot (FR) | Spanish Open 2007 | – | – | – | – | |
| 2007-10-13 | 9.77 | Erik Akkersdijk (NL) | Dutch Open 2007 | – | – | – | – | |
| 2007-11-24 | 9.55 | Ron van Bruchem (NL) | Dutch Championship 2007 | – | – | – | – | |
| 2008-02-23 | 9.18 | Edouard Chambon (FR) | Murcia Open 2008 | – | – | – | – | |
| 2008-05-05 | 8.72 | Yu Nakajima (JP) | Kashiwa Open 2008 | – | – | – | – | |
| 2008-07-12 | 7.08 | Erik Akkersdijk (NL) | Czech Open 2008 | CFOP | modified Type-A Rubik's | 49 | 6.92 | famous lucky scramble — XCross + PLL skip; stood 854 days |
| 2010-11-13 | 6.77 | Feliks Zemdegs (AU) | Melbourne Cube Day 2010 | CFOP | DaYan GuHong | – | – | Feliks era begins (age 15) |
| 2011-01-29 | 6.65 | Feliks Zemdegs (AU) | Melbourne Summer Open 2011 | – | – | – | – | |
| 2011-05-07 | 6.24 | Feliks Zemdegs (AU) | Kubaroo Open 2011 | – | – | – | – | |
| 2011-06-25 | 5.66 | Feliks Zemdegs (AU) | Melbourne Winter Open 2011 | CFOP | DaYan ZhanChi | 50 | 8.83 | first sub-6 single |
| 2013-03-02 | 5.55 | Mats Valk (NL) | Zonhoven Open 2013 | CFOP | MoYu HuanYing | 45 | 8.11 | |
| 2015-04-25 | 5.25 | Collin Burns (US) | Doylestown Spring 2015 | CFOP | YuXin | – | – | first US single WR in modern era |
| 2015-11-21 | 4.90 | Lucas Etter (US) | River Hill Fall 2015 | CFOP | MoYu Weilong | 41 | 8.37 | first sub-5 single |
| 2016-11-05 | 4.74 | Mats Valk (NL) | Jawa Timur Open 2016 | CFOP + VLS | magnetic Valk 3 (TheCubicle retrofit) | 40 | 8.44 | first WR with factory-style magnets |
| 2016-12-11 | 4.73 | Feliks Zemdegs (AU) | POPS Open 2016 | CFOP | GAN 356 Air UM | 49 | 10.40 | |
| 2017-09-02 | 4.69 | Patrick Ponce (US) | Rally In The Valley 2017 | CFOP | GAN 356 Air UM | – | – | |
| 2017-10-28 | 4.59 | SeungBeom Cho (KR) | ChicaGhosts 2017 | CFOP | – | – | – | standing ovation |
| 2018-05-06 | 4.22 | Feliks Zemdegs (AU) | Cube for Cambodia 2018 | CFOP | Angstrom-modded GAN Air SM | 40 | 9.50 | X-cross + EPLL skip |
| 2018-11-24 | 3.47 | Yusheng Du (CN) | Wuhu Open 2018 | CFOP | GAN 356 X | 27 | 7.78 | XX-cross + COLL with PLL skip; stood 4y 7m |
| 2023-06-11 | 3.13 | Max Park (US) | Pride in Long Beach 2023 | CFOP | QiYi X-Man Tornado V3 Pioneer | 41 | 13.10 | first WR with double-digit sustained TPS |
| 2025-02-15 | 3.08 | Yiheng Wang (CN) | XMUM Cube Open 2025 | CFOP (ZZ-influenced) | MoYu Super WeiLong V2 | 45 | 14.61 | highest TPS WR ever; Wang age 11 |
| 2025-04-13 | 3.05 | Xuanyi Geng (CN) | Shenyang Spring 2025 | CFOP + ZBLL | GAN 16 MagLev MAX | 33 | 10.81 | Geng age 7; full ZBLL |
| 2026-02-07 | 2.76 | Teodor Zajder (PL) | GLS Big Cubes Gdańsk 2026 | CFOP + ZBLL | GAN 12 MagLev (Signature) | 29 | 10.50 | first sub-3 ever; XXX-cross + ZBLL; Zajder age 9 |
Ao5 Progression (since 2007)
WCA adopted Ao5 as the official ranking metric in 2007 (Mo3 prior). Complete Ao5 WR table, 38 drops. Zemdegs held it solo for ~9 years (2010-2019).
WR Ao5 (actual)Ensemble median (Ao5)
| Date | Ao5 | Holder | Comp | Method | 5 solves | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2007-01-07 | 11.76 | JeongMin Yu (KR) | KCRC Championship 2007 | CFOP | – | |
| 2008-02-23 | 11.48 | Edouard Chambon (FR) | Murcia Open 2008 | – | – | |
| 2008-03-29 | 11.33 | Yu Nakajima (JP) | Osaka Open 2008 | – | – | |
| 2008-05-05 | 11.28 | Yu Nakajima (JP) | Kashiwa Open 2008 | – | – | |
| 2009-02-21 | 11.11 | Erik Akkersdijk (NL) | Benelux Open 2009 | – | – | |
| 2009-03-28 | 10.83 | Yumu Tabuchi (JP) | Osaka Open 2009 | – | – | |
| 2009-04-04 | 10.63 | Tomasz Żołnowski (PL) | Warsaw Open 2009 | – | – | |
| 2009-09-26 | 10.07 | Tomasz Żołnowski (PL) | Polish Open 2009 | – | – | |
| 2010-01-30 | 9.21 | Feliks Zemdegs (AU) | Melbourne Summer Open 2010 | – | – | |
| 2010-07-10 | 8.52 | Feliks Zemdegs (AU) | New Zealand Championships 2010 | – | – | |
| 2010-11-13 | 7.91 | Feliks Zemdegs (AU) | Melbourne Cube Day 2010 | – | – | |
| 2011-01-29 | 7.87 | Feliks Zemdegs (AU) | Melbourne Summer Open 2011 | – | – | |
| 2011-06-25 | 7.64 | Feliks Zemdegs (AU) | Melbourne Winter Open 2011 | – | – | |
| 2012-09-01 | 7.53 | Feliks Zemdegs (AU) | Australian Nationals 2012 | – | – | |
| 2013-09-07 | 7.49 | Feliks Zemdegs (AU) | Australian Nationals 2013 | – | – | |
| 2013-11-16 | 6.54 | Feliks Zemdegs (AU) | Melbourne Cube Day 2013 | CFOP | 6.18, 6.39, 7.06, 7.04, 6.18 | |
| 2016-07-09 | 6.45 | Feliks Zemdegs (AU) | WLS Lato 2016 | – | – | |
| 2017-04-23 | 6.39 | Max Park (US) | OCSEF Open 2017 | – | – | |
| 2017-06-28 | 5.97 | Feliks Zemdegs (AU) | Latin America Cubing Tour - Chía 2017 | CFOP | – | first sub-6 Ao5 |
| 2017-10-14 | 5.80 | Feliks Zemdegs (AU) | Malaysia Cube Open 2017 | – | – | |
| 2019-04-06 | 5.69 | Feliks Zemdegs (AU) | Koalafication Brisbane 2019 | – | – | |
| 2019-11-10 | 5.53 | Feliks Zemdegs (AU) | Odd Day in Sydney 2019 | – | – | |
| 2021-06-05 | 5.48 | Ruihang Xu (CN) | Wuhan Open 2021 | – | – | |
| 2021-11-06 | 5.32 | Max Park (US) | Missoula 2021 | – | – | |
| 2021-12-18 | 5.09 | Tymon Kolasiński (PL) | Cubers Eve Lubartów 2021 | – | – | |
| 2022-04-03 | 5.08 | Max Park (US) | Bay Area Speedcubin' 29 PM 2022 | – | – | |
| 2022-07-30 | 4.86 | Tymon Kolasiński (PL) | Cube4fun in Warsaw 2022 | CFOP | – | first sub-5 Ao5 |
| 2023-03-10 | 4.69 | Yiheng Wang (CN) | Yong Jun KL Speedcubing 2023 | – | – | |
| 2023-06-19 | 4.48 | Yiheng Wang (CN) | Mofunland Cruise Open 2023 | – | – | |
| 2024-07-05 | 4.36 | Yiheng Wang (CN) | Philippine Championship 2024 | – | – | |
| 2024-08-25 | 4.25 | Yiheng Wang (CN) | Deqing Small Cubes Summer 2024 | – | – | |
| 2024-09-21 | 4.09 | Yiheng Wang (CN) | Xuzhou Autumn 2024 | – | – | |
| 2024-12-08 | 4.05 | Yiheng Wang (CN) | Zhengzhou Open 2024 | – | – | |
| 2025-04-04 | 4.03 | Yiheng Wang (CN) | Xi'an Cherry Blossom 2025 | – | – | |
| 2025-05-25 | 3.91 | Yiheng Wang (CN) | Lishui Open 2025 | CFOP | – | first sub-4 Ao5 ever (3.91) |
| 2025-07-26 | 3.90 | Yiheng Wang (CN) | Taizhou Open 2025 | – | – | |
| 2026-01-10 | 3.84 | Xuanyi Geng (CN) | Beijing Winter 2026 | ZB | – | 8-year-old; full ZB throughout |
| 2026-04-26 | 3.71 | Xuanyi Geng (CN) | Deqing Small & Special 2026 | ZB | 2.80, 3.45, 3.84, 4.51, 3.84 | includes 2.80 single AsR; full ZB throughout |
Sub-X Milestone Timeline
Single sub-X milestones compressed 5× over 22 years:
| Sub-X | Year | Date | First Holder | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sub-15 | 2004 | 2004-01-24 | Shotaro Makisumi | first sub-15 single (14.76) |
| Sub-10 | 2007 | 2007-05-05 | Thibaut Jacquinot | first sub-10 single (9.86) |
| Sub-8 | 2008 | 2008-07-12 | Erik Akkersdijk | first sub-8 single (7.08) |
| Sub-7 | 2010 | 2010-11-13 | Feliks Zemdegs | first sub-7 single (6.77) |
| Sub-6 | 2011 | 2011-06-25 | Feliks Zemdegs | first sub-6 single (5.66) |
| Sub-5 | 2015 | 2015-11-21 | Lucas Etter | first sub-5 single (4.90) |
| Sub-4 | 2018 | 2018-11-24 | Yusheng Du | first sub-4 single (3.47) |
| Sub-3 | 2026 | 2026-02-07 | Teodor Zajder | first sub-3 single (2.76) |
Ao5 milestones lag single by ~2-3 years:
| Sub-X | Year | Date | First Holder | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sub-15 | 2007 | 2007-01-07 | JeongMin Yu | first sub-15 Ao5 (11.76) |
| Sub-12 | 2007 | 2007-01-07 | JeongMin Yu | first sub-12 Ao5 (11.76) |
| Sub-10 | 2010 | 2010-01-30 | Feliks Zemdegs | first sub-10 Ao5 (9.21) |
| Sub-8 | 2010 | 2010-11-13 | Feliks Zemdegs | first sub-8 Ao5 (7.91) |
| Sub-7 | 2013 | 2013-11-16 | Feliks Zemdegs | first sub-7 Ao5 (6.54) |
| Sub-6 | 2017 | 2017-06-28 | Feliks Zemdegs | first sub-6 Ao5 (5.97) |
| Sub-5 | 2022 | 2022-07-30 | Tymon Kolasiński | first sub-5 Ao5 (4.86) |
| Sub-4 | 2025 | 2025-05-25 | Yiheng Wang | first sub-4 Ao5 (3.91) |
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