3x3 Speedcubing: The Ultimate Limits Forecast
History · Methods · Hardware · Math · Biomech · Top Cubers · Training · Statistics — toward a single & average forecast.
Lucky Scrambles + Skip Probability
| Event | P | % | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| X-cross (natural) | 1/16 | 6.250% | F2L pair pre-solved during cross |
| XX-cross (lucky) | 1/600 | 0.170% | rare double pair |
| XXX-cross (extreme luck) | 1/12000 | 0.008% | Zajder 2.76 / theoretical |
| OLL skip (3-cycle naturally oriented) | 1/216 | 0.463% | 3^3 corner orientations × 2^4 edge orientations / 4 symmetries |
| PLL skip | 1/72 | 1.389% | 1 of 72 perm+AUF states |
| LL skip (OLL+PLL both) | 1/15552 | 0.006% | ~1 in 15.6k — career event for top cubers |
| Sub-30-STM total (lucky scramble) | 1/50 | 2.000% | optimal HTM ≤ 14 → ~1.5% of scrambles |
P(LL skip) = 1/216 × 1/72 = 1/15,552 ≈ 0.00643%. Top cuber career ~10⁶ solves → ~60 expected. Du 3.47 / Park 3.13 had PLL skip. Zajder 2.76 didn't use skip — XX-cross + ZBLL gave 29 STM.